Economics

Macroeconomic forecasts often assume shock-induced unemployment is temporary and that employment and output recover. However, the reality may be far more complicated. The loss of skills and the mismatch that arises when workers switch industries may stall a recovery for years.

The science of economics is not mere knowledge of the world but a way of knowing it. This is why fictional worlds may be legitimate areas of research which are sometimes more convenient than the real world.

In Russia, around a third of the employed face a significant risk of being potentially affected by AI in their daily work. However, full automation, owing to the shift of all functions from humans to AI, threatens less than 1% of jobs.

The price differential between new builds and resale properties in Russia is driven by factors beyond macroeconomic conditions. What also matters is the housing market structure including the level of competition among developers and banks, and subsidised mortgage programmes.

The digital economy is transforming the classic factors of production Adam Smith described in The Wealth of Nations – the treatise that laid the foundation of economics. Two and a half centuries later, Smith’s ideas remain relevant, but new realities demand that we rethink them.

Participants in the Bank of Russia’s Financial Congress discussed the impact of the rapid development of artificial intelligence on the economy, the risks it carries, and how regulators should respond.

Participants in the Bank of Russia’s Financial Congress discussed whether the housing market in Russia is overheated, the risks of payment by instalments, and the risks faced by developers and buyers.

Over the past year and a half, the ruble exchange rate has strengthened despite the turbulence and volatility of the foreign exchange market. Participants in the Bank of Russia’s Financial Congress discussed the factors influencing the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate.

The world has entered a geopolitical recession – a prolonged erosion of international cooperation. In addition, the global economy is being reshaped by climate, demographics, and artificial intelligence, which brings both economic opportunities and new geopolitical risks.

Russia has seen a twofold rise in the average standard of living over the past 20 years. However, the share of food in household spending has shown paradoxical trends: in defiance of economic theory and global practice, it has changed little, if at all.

Central banks have faced a new reality: supply shocks have become the norm, and confidence in low inflation has been shaken. Participants in the New Economic School discussed why a resilient economy is at risk of structural damage and why monetary policy needs a ‘house of brick’.

The world economy is increasingly facing oil, semiconductors, labour force and rare-earth shortages. But is it really a problem of scarcity, and is the market capable to regulate these imbalances? Participants in discussion at the New Economic School addressed these issues.

People often make unnecessary purchases or end up paying more than they can afford to, contrary to their economic benefit. Such consumption is called non-standard, and is observed, at least occasionally, in almost half of Russian adults.

Crowdfunding needs more than just money and internet access to grow. Interpersonal trust, institutional predictability, and cultural behaviour patterns are essential for collective investment: crowdfunding can serve as a mirror reflecting the level of trust in the economy.

Russians tend to judge inflation by average expenditure rather than ‘visible items’ and describe a ’good economy’ as a self-reliant manufacturing powerhouse. This influences the perception that the key rate is an instrument to support production rather than manage demand.

People often intuitively perceive economics as a zero-sum game, where one person’s gain automatically means another person’s loss. These naïve economic beliefs distort decision-making processes and become a handy tool for political manipulation.