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The abandonment of the US dollar as the dominant currency in the near future is highly unlikely. However, geopolitics, coupled with modern financial technologies, may become a driver of the transition to a new equilibrium, with regional currencies becoming dominant.
Migrants make a substantial contribution to the economy of the Russian capital, accounting for over 20% of its GRP. Up to two-thirds comes from residents of other Russian regions. The significant role of internal migration is what sets Moscow apart from many other global cities.
The degree of monetary tightening for a sustainable disinflation depends not only on the inflation rate, but also on the conditions that have led to its rise. There are three reasons why considerable monetary tightness might need to be maintained even when inflation decelerates.
More and more people around the world are getting news from social media. For regulators, this is an opportunity to receive feedback in real time. In our study, we show this by building an index that reflects how Telegram users channels perceive the Bank of Russia’s decisions.
Industrial policy is recovering all over the world. Our analysis of more than 6,500 regulatory acts across nations evidenced that advanced economies support high-tech mastered sectors, while emerging markets – the introduction of simpler technologies, which are new to them.
Human capital and its key component – education – are strongly linked to economic growth. However, high levels of education do not guarantee economic growth if a weak institutional environment hinders efficient application of knowledge and skills.
Although the real estate market is a separate sector, it is characterised by what is called ‘macro-criticality’. This means that the effects of changes in the market extend beyond it and may have an impact on macroeconomic stability in general.
Suboptimal and erroneous financial decisions people make often stem from cognitive biases. Their effect can be mitigated by impacting two key aspects – people’s behaviour and the decision-making environment.
The impact of population ageing on inflation remains contentious, as researchers’ opinions differ as to whether ageing has a deflationary or proinflationary effect. Our work uses data from the Russian regions to show that an elderly population has a proinflationary effect.
Unlike in other countries, inflation expectations in Russia are unresponsive to low inflation data of previous years, an experiment has found. This makes it imperative to ensure sustainably low inflation and prove that price stability is achievable.
An import reduction has a more than proportionate impact on Russia’s industrial output and exports. Over one year, a 1% decrease in imports as a share of production costs across industries leads to a more than 2% output reduction and an even more significant decline in exports.
Central banks have a system for announcing the future path of monetary policy: forward guidance. It contributes to the reducing uncertainty in the economy and decreasing market volatility and helps economic agents adjust to expected changes in advance.
In the last decades, economists have created a number of indices of central bank transparency. However, all of them target a professional audience. We have built a new index to cover regulator efforts to communicate with a broader audience.
Stock market capitalisation plays a significant role in creating wealth for the population, and often draws the attention of financial authorities. But what drives capitalisation growth and what is its ‘optimal’ size? Some of the answers can be found in economic science.
The Russian market is assimilating key green financial instruments: bonds, corporate lending, and mortgages. However, there are other forms of sustainable finance that could also potentially take root in the market.
Modern technology and big data on retail sales enable more accurate and faster measurement of inflation. We are developing a methodology for calculating a price index based on data from online receipts: in the future, it will make it possible to track inflation in near real time.
Human capital is one of the key factors of economic growth, but there are few quantitative estimates of its contribution to the Russian economy. New estimates show that its contribution peaked in the second half of the 2000s and had almost disappeared by the end of the 2010s.
In a geographically large economy, different regions can respond differently to the same events. Nowcasting used for data across Russia revealed these differences as well as their dependence on the level of development and the sectoral specialisation of the regions.
Russian companies became more generous with their dividends. Corporate reports for 2005–2023 show that major corporations provide the largest payments, while third-tier issuers pay dividends most frequently. However, a focus on dividends does not guarantee a return on investment.
Europe’s dependence on Russian supplied gas has drastically reduced. Nevertheless, several EU member states retain an interest in continued Russian exports given the steep costs of switching to alternative supplies.
The number of educated and employed women in Russia is high by world standards. Russia is among the world leaders for the share of families with a woman as the main breadwinner. The weak role in governance and large pay gap are paradoxical, but have an institutional explanation.
The past two years saw an almost complete transformation of the logistics and geography of Russia’s export and import. Analysis of this process has identified a number of patterns and risks in the new structure of foreign trade.
