Opinions

‘Macrotelegram’: Bank of Russia Perception Index

Monetary Policy

‘Macrotelegram’: Bank of Russia Perception Index

October 9, 2025 | Alisa Polekhina, Anna Guseva

More and more people around the world are getting news from social media. For regulators, this is an opportunity to receive feedback in real time. In our study, we show this by building an index that reflects how Telegram users channels perceive the Bank of Russia’s decisions.

Industrial Policy in the Era of Technological Competition

Economics

Industrial Policy in the Era of Technological Competition

September 8, 2025 | Yuri Simachev, Anna Fedyunina

Industrial policy is recovering all over the world. Our analysis of more than 6,500 regulatory acts across nations evidenced that advanced economies support high-tech mastered sectors, while emerging markets – the introduction of simpler technologies, which are new to them.

Education and Economic Growth: The Role of Institutions

Economics

Macroeconomics

Education and Economic Growth: The Role of Institutions

August 22, 2025 | Daria Avdeeva, Dmitry Veselov

Human capital and its key component – education – are strongly linked to economic growth. However, high levels of education do not guarantee economic growth if a weak institutional environment hinders efficient application of knowledge and skills.

Real Estate Market and Monetary Policy: Searching for Balance

Economics

Macroeconomics

Real Estate Market and Monetary Policy: Searching for Balance

July 18, 2025 | Zhanna Smirnova

Although the real estate market is a separate sector, it is characterised by what is called ‘macro-criticality’. This means that the effects of changes in the market extend beyond it and may have an impact on macroeconomic stability in general.

Behavioural Economics for Financial Literacy

Economics

Behavioural Economics for Financial Literacy

July 8, 2025 | Elena Nikishina, Vladimir Ivanov

Suboptimal and erroneous financial decisions people make often stem from cognitive biases. Their effect can be mitigated by impacting two key aspects – people’s behaviour and the decision-making environment.

How Population Ageing Affects Inflation

Economics

How Population Ageing Affects Inflation

June 27, 2025 | Dmitry Tereshchenko, Vasily Shcherbakov

The impact of population ageing on inflation remains contentious, as researchers’ opinions differ as to whether ageing has a deflationary or proinflationary effect. Our work uses data from the Russian regions to show that an elderly population has a proinflationary effect.

What Information Impacts Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

Monetary Policy

What Information Impacts Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

June 9, 2025 | Vadim Grishchenko, Maria Lymar, Andrey Sinyakov

Unlike in other countries, inflation expectations in Russia are unresponsive to low inflation data of previous years, an experiment has found. This makes it imperative to ensure sustainably low inflation and prove that price stability is achievable.

Impact of Import Restrictions on Production and Non-Commodity Exports

Economics

Impact of Import Restrictions on Production and Non-Commodity Exports

March 14, 2025 | Alexander Knobel, Alexander Firanchuk

An import reduction has a more than proportionate impact on Russia’s industrial output and exports. Over one year, a 1% decrease in imports as a share of production costs across industries leads to a more than 2% output reduction and an even more significant decline in exports.

Odysseus, Oracle, and Central banks

Monetary Policy

Odysseus, Oracle, and Central banks

December 18, 2024 | Mansur Abdurakhmanov

Central banks have a system for announcing the future path of monetary policy: forward guidance. It contributes to the reducing uncertainty in the economy and decreasing market volatility and helps economic agents adjust to expected changes in advance.

Leg, Trunk or Ear: How to Assess Central Bank Transparency

Monetary Policy

Leg, Trunk or Ear: How to Assess Central Bank Transparency

November 18, 2024 | Alina Evstigneeva

In the last decades, economists have created a number of indices of central bank transparency. However, all of them target a professional audience. We have built a new index to cover regulator efforts to communicate with a broader audience.

Six Facts about Stock Market Capitalisation

Finance

Six Facts about Stock Market Capitalisation

September 18, 2024 | Sergey Moiseev

Stock market capitalisation plays a significant role in creating wealth for the population, and often draws the attention of financial authorities. But what drives capitalisation growth and what is its ‘optimal’ size? Some of the answers can be found in economic science.

Sustainable Finance in Russia: Present and Future

Finance

Sustainable Finance in Russia: Present and Future

August 2, 2024 | Ekaterina Kopalkina, Monika Arustamyan

The Russian market is assimilating key green financial instruments: bonds, corporate lending, and mortgages. However, there are other forms of sustainable finance that could also potentially take root in the market.

Price Index Based on Online Receipt Data

Economics

Price Index Based on Online Receipt Data

July 19, 2024 | Petr Milyutin, Dmitry Aldokhin

Modern technology and big data on retail sales enable more accurate and faster measurement of inflation. We are developing a methodology for calculating a price index based on data from online receipts: in the future, it will make it possible to track inflation in near real time.

Contribution of Human Capital to the Growth of the Russian Economy

Economics

Contribution of Human Capital to the Growth of the Russian Economy

July 15, 2024 | Daria Avdeeva

Human capital is one of the key factors of economic growth, but there are few quantitative estimates of its contribution to the Russian economy. New estimates show that its contribution peaked in the second half of the 2000s and had almost disappeared by the end of the 2010s.

How Russian Regions Respond to External Shocks: Similarities and Differences

Economics

How Russian Regions Respond to External Shocks: Similarities and Differences

July 15, 2024 | Anna Fedyunina

In a geographically large economy, different regions can respond differently to the same events. Nowcasting used for data across Russia revealed these differences as well as their dependence on the level of development and the sectoral specialisation of the regions.

A Fair of Generosity: Key Trends in Dividend Policies of Russian Companies

Finance

A Fair of Generosity: Key Trends in Dividend Policies of Russian Companies

June 4, 2024 | Alexander Abramov, Maria Chernova

Russian companies became more generous with their dividends. Corporate reports for 2005–2023 show that major corporations provide the largest payments, while third-tier issuers pay dividends most frequently. However, a focus on dividends does not guarantee a return on investment.

Gas Arithmetic: Can the European Market Do Without Russian Supplies

Economics

Gas Arithmetic: Can the European Market Do Without Russian Supplies

May 17, 2024 | Marcel Salikhov

Europe’s dependence on Russian supplied gas has drastically reduced. Nevertheless, several EU member states retain an interest in continued Russian exports given the steep costs of switching to alternative supplies.

Gender Inequality: Impact of Axial Institutions

Economics

Gender Inequality: Impact of Axial Institutions

May 13, 2024 | Sofia Rebrey

The number of educated and employed women in Russia is high by world standards. Russia is among the world leaders for the share of families with a woman as the main breadwinner. The weak role in governance and large pay gap are paradoxical, but have an institutional explanation.

Redirecting Russia’s Foreign Trade: Six Key Findings

Economics

Redirecting Russia’s Foreign Trade: Six Key Findings

March 20, 2024 | Alexander Knobel, Alexander Firanchuk

The past two years saw an almost complete transformation of the logistics and geography of Russia’s export and import. Analysis of this process has identified a number of patterns and risks in the new structure of foreign trade.

Super-Wealth in Russia: Uneven and Invariable

Economics

Super-Wealth in Russia: Uneven and Invariable

March 13, 2024 | Svetlana Mareeva, Ekaterina Slobodenyuk

In terms of concentration of wealth in the hands of a small group, 1% of the population, Russia is among the world’s leaders. This group is almost inaccessible for sociological analysis, but a few assessments can be made from open sources.

Law of Mutual Attraction: Cryptocurrencies no Longer Insure Stocks

Finance

Law of Mutual Attraction: Cryptocurrencies no Longer Insure Stocks

January 15, 2024 | Oleg Shibanov

Cryptocurrencies have become a riskier asset than they once were and no longer add diversification to investment portfolios. Cryptoassets more and more resemble lottery tickets in terms of risk profile.

How to Identify “Visible Items”

Monetary Policy

Inflation Targeting

How to Identify “Visible Items”

December 25, 2023 | Vadim Grishchenko, Nadezhda Ivanova

People’s inflation expectations are often based on the dynamics of prices for certain goods and services called “visible items”. For Russians, these visible items include durables such as cars and clothes, and also petrol, housing maintenance and public transport fares.

Economic Policy Uncertainty: New Index for Russia

Economics

Economic Policy Uncertainty: New Index for Russia

November 23, 2023 | Diana Petrova, Pavel Trunin

Many indicators point to a rise in economic uncertainty, but it is the news that reflects this trend most quickly. The index based on media archives has accurately shown all crises in the 21st century and made it possible to calculate their consequences for the economy.

Where Is Global Capital Moving?

Economics

Where Is Global Capital Moving?

October 18, 2023 | Alexander Bulatov

The dynamics and geography of international capital flows are changing. Geopolitical risks have become the major driver of these flows.

Creative Destruction: AI Could Spark Labour and Capital Revaluation

Finance

Creative Destruction: AI Could Spark Labour and Capital Revaluation

August 31, 2023 | Rainer Michael Preiss

AI has become a tool of creative destruction. Companies that incorporate it into their business models will set the tone for the development of their sectors in the coming years. Perhaps AI will also cause a realignment in the trade and economic alliances of countries.

Laconic Calm: How the EU Market Is Surviving Gas Supply Reductions

Economics

Laconic Calm: How the EU Market Is Surviving Gas Supply Reductions

August 25, 2023 | Marcel Salikhov

After a period of record growth in 2022, gas spot prices in the European market have returned to the levels seen two years ago. Europe has managed to adapt to the reduction in supplies from Russia, but price volatility and consumption risks persist.

Global Inflation: Three Scenarios

Economics

Global Inflation: Three Scenarios

August 18, 2023 | Evgeniy Goryunov

The inflationary episode that has been experienced by all developed countries since 2021 is not over. The risk of losing the inflation anchor and falling into the stagflation trap exists even though the effects of pro-inflation factors have almost completely worn off.

Why Modern Central Banks Talk So Much

Monetary Policy

Why Modern Central Banks Talk So Much

August 4, 2023 | Alina Evstigneeva

Have central banks opened up due to the increased openness of the authorities or the developments of new media? This is not the case. Openness was a response to unprecedented shocks that has helped to withstand such shocks when traditional tools have turned out to be ineffective.

Century-old Resilience of Entrepreneurship: Five Hypotheses and Three Explanations

Economics

Century-old Resilience of Entrepreneurship: Five Hypotheses and Three Explanations

July 28, 2023 | Stepan Zemtsov

Entrepreneurship in Russia has shown great resilience to changes in the political and economic landscape: the influence of institutions and culture on business activity may persist even after extreme changes in political and economic conditions.

The Fight for Workers: the Russian Labour Market’s Reaction to Sanctions

Economics

Macroeconomics

The Fight for Workers: the Russian Labour Market’s Reaction to Sanctions

July 14, 2023 | Yekaterina Kravchenko

International sanctions have accelerated the transformation of the labour market which started during the pandemic. The market has moved from limited demand to limited supply, and this situation will persist for a long time, labor market expert Rostislav Kapeliushnikov says.

Transparency of Monetary Policy: Optimal Level

Monetary Policy

Transparency of Monetary Policy: Optimal Level

June 15, 2023 | Philipp Kartaev

The more clearly businesses and households understand the central bank's policy, the closer their inflation expectations are to the target. However, it is possible for monetary policy to be excessively transparent, which can bring more harm than benefit.

Financial Sector Vulnerabilities: New and Old Risks

Financial Stability

Financial Sector Vulnerabilities: New and Old Risks

May 17, 2023 | Elizaveta Danilova, Malika Musaeva, Ivan Shevchuk

Global regulators are facing a dilemma: the objectives of monetary policy contradict the objectives of supporting financial stability. Useful conclusions for Bank of Russia policy can be drawn from this situation.

Financial Statistics Guide: How to Measure Monetary Conditions

Economics

Financial Statistics Guide: How to Measure Monetary Conditions

March 10, 2023 | Alexey Egorov

No one will argue that the financial sector affects the real one, but the number of answers to the question of how exactly it does so is almost the same as the number of economists. A problem arises in finding indicators that characterise this influence quite fully.

Gravity Theory in Economics: Implications for Russia

Economics

Gravity Theory in Economics: Implications for Russia

December 23, 2022 | Alexander Morozov, Irina Bogacheva

Gravity exists not only in physics, but also in economics, and just like in physics, its laws are objective. It is far more important for small and medium-sized economies to maintain and develop economic ties with the largest economies than vice versa.

Ben Bernanke: The Right Man at the Right Time

Economics

Ben Bernanke: The Right Man at the Right Time

December 16, 2022 | Sergey Moiseev

As one of the three winners of the 2022 Nobel Prize in economics, Ben Bernanke was awarded it for his research into the causes of the Great Depression. He learned and applied its lessons as chair of the US Federal Reserve when it had to combat the global financial crisis.

Can We Presume That Inflation Expectations Are Anchored in Russia?

Monetary Policy

Can We Presume That Inflation Expectations Are Anchored in Russia?

August 18, 2022 | Vadim Grishchenko, Olga Kadreva, Alexey Porshakov, Dmitry Chernyadyev

With inflation expectations anchored, price spikes do not spread between market segments, and inflation returns to the target level. We have assessed that the expectations of Russian economists have been anchored since 2017, while those of households have not yet been anchored.

Green Transition: Confirming the Priority

Economics

Financial Stability

Green Transition: Confirming the Priority

July 29, 2022 | Elizaveta Danilova, Maxim Morozov, Tatiana Yudina

Transition to a low-carbon economy remains a priority for major countries including China despite the rises in commodity prices and the highest global inflation. For Russia, as its economy refocuses on Asian markets, the importance of the green transition still holds.

Little Fires Everywhere

Economics

Monetary Policy

Little Fires Everywhere

June 21, 2022 | Rainer Michael Preiss

The Fed waited too long to tighten the policy in its anti-inflation stand, believing the acceleration of prices to have been temporary. The biggest concern for markets now is whether the Fed could avoid another policy mistake with regards to over hiking interest rates.

The New Life of the Economy: Four Stages

Economics

The New Life of the Economy: Four Stages

May 18, 2022 | Alexander Morozov

In March, the Russian economy entered a downturn phase triggered by the impact of all-out foreign trade and financial sanctions and restrictions. If they continue, the economy will lose some of its potential, and the recovery will be protracted.

ETF: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Finance

ETF: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

February 25, 2022 | Sergey Moiseev

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are gradually supplanting all other types of funds in the financial market. Their rampant growth makes it simpler for millions of investors to enter markets. However, their expected dominance might have effects that are yet to be explored.

Russian Investors and Foreign ETFs

Finance

Russian Investors and Foreign ETFs

January 10, 2022 | Mikhail Mamuta, Sergey Moiseev

From 2022 on, Russian retail investors will be allowed to buy foreign exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This regulatory decision tackles several objectives, from making investments more balanced to encouraging competition among asset management companies.

Europe’s Energy Crisis

Economics

Europe’s Energy Crisis

December 2, 2021 | Marcel Salikhov

There has never been such expensive gas in Europe as recently: over the 12 months up to the end of November, prices increased more than 5-fold. The situation raises the question of whether this crisis is temporary or it signifies structural problems in the energy markets.

Here Comes Uber: How Ride-Hailing Apps Change Traffic

Economics

Here Comes Uber: How Ride-Hailing Apps Change Traffic

November 18, 2021 | Ivan Korolev

Uber and Lyft once promised to replace personal cars and do away with traffic congestion. However, some municipal authorities believe that these services have only exacerbated traffic jams. Research shows that their impact on road traffic depends on the ‘design’ of cities.

‘Don’t Get Me Wrong’: the Central Bank’s Language

Monetary Policy

‘Don’t Get Me Wrong’: the Central Bank’s Language

October 4, 2021 | Alina Evstigneeva, Mark Sidorovsky

Central banks strive to speak clearly and simply – this is critical to effectively targeting inflation. We assessed the comprehensibility of the Bank of Russia's communications using neural networks – it showed that the level of its texts is rather complicated for the public.

Carbon Perspectives: Green Regulation and Russia’s Electricity Industry

Economics

Carbon Perspectives: Green Regulation and Russia’s Electricity Industry

August 26, 2021 | Elena Anankina, Mark Mozur

Russia will lag behind Europe, the United States and China in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from its power industry. Ensuring a reliable and affordable energy supply is of a higher priority in Russia than ecology, and natural gas matches both criteria.

Green Deal: How Should Financial Institutions and Regulators Respond

Financial Stability

Green Deal: How Should Financial Institutions and Regulators Respond

August 6, 2021 | Elizaveta Danilova, Maxim Morozov

Climate risks, renewable power, and carbon neutrality are all on the agenda of country leaders and business executives all over the world. Measures taken will have a direct impact on Russia.

New Rules for Retail Investors

Finance

New Rules for Retail Investors

May 31, 2021 | Mikhail Mamuta, Sergey Moiseev

New legislative requirements for communication with non-qualified investors are meant to enhance the protection of individuals in financial markets and increase market transparency by providing more comprehensive information about financial products to investors.

Income Inequality in Russia from a Sociological Point of View

Economics

Income Inequality in Russia from a Sociological Point of View

March 11, 2021 | Svetlana Mareeva

Inequality remains a sore point in socio-economic development, but society's key demands for justice have more to do with inequalities of opportunity such as equality before the law and equal access to healthcare and education, than with the elimination of income inequality.

Pandemic and Gender Inequality in the Labour Market: Challenges for Russia

Economics

Pandemic and Gender Inequality in the Labour Market: Challenges for Russia

February 12, 2021 | Oksana Sinyavskaya

Changes in private and social life caused by the pandemic have reignited scientific interest in gender inequality in the labour market. Russian economy has adapted to the crisis mainly through price adjustment, and this means the gender pay gap is likely to grow.

EU Border Carbon Tax: a Challenge for the Russian Economy

Economics

EU Border Carbon Tax: a Challenge for the Russian Economy

December 21, 2020 | Maxim Morozov, Elizaveta Danilova, Veronika Loginova, Tatiana Yudina

The EU carbon tax on imports that is to be imposed in 2022 may affect almost 42% of Russian exports. The private sector and the state should take active measures to maintain economic competitiveness in the world of growing climate risks.

Fair vs. Unfair Inequality

Economics

Fair vs. Unfair Inequality

May 29, 2020 | Sergei Guriev

Economics distinguishes inequality of outcomes and inequality of opportunity. The latter is both unfair and inefficient.

Fiscal Policy During the Time of the Pandemic

Economics

Fiscal Policy During the Time of the Pandemic

April 24, 2020 | Evsey Gurvich, Alexandra Suslina

The unprecedented crisis will require fundamental changes in Russia’s fiscal policy. Financing anti-crisis measures will involve not only using the National Welfare Fund, but also moving away from fiscal rule and using unconventional fiscal and monetary tools.

Coronavirus in the Labour Market

Economics

Coronavirus in the Labour Market

April 14, 2020 | Vladimir Gimpelson

The unconventional nature of the crisis requires unconventional measures. About one third of all jobs in Russia are at risk, and the main objective is to enable those who have lost their jobs and income to return to paid work quickly when the lockdown is lifted.

Russian Borrowers: Between Wants and Needs

Economics

Russian Borrowers: Between Wants and Needs

April 13, 2020 | Lyudmila Presnyakova

Most Russians believe that loans make their life tougher, but almost 50% of households have outstanding loans. Many borrow impulsively without regard to consequences, although the majority manage to pay them off.

Corporate Governance of Russian Banks: Particular Features and Prospects for Improvements

Finance

Corporate Governance of Russian Banks: Particular Features and Prospects for Improvements

April 10, 2020 | Carsten Sprenger, Srdjan Todorovic

Adherence to high standards of corporate governance in the banking sector can reinforce the resilience of the banking system. However, existing corporate governance practices do not help curb the risks banks take.

Crowdfunding: from Hopes to Challenges and Back Again?

Finance

Crowdfunding: from Hopes to Challenges and Back Again?

February 17, 2020 | Mikhail Mamuta

Crowdfunding platforms have proven a promising alternative to banks. However, so far, they still seem more of an experiment whose success depends on their ability to manage existing confidence risks.

Fintech in Microfinance

FinTech

Fintech in Microfinance

February 17, 2020 | Sergey Moiseev

In 2020 Russia will see the birth of investment platforms, which are financial organizations of a new type. Through them, individuals and companies can secure loans directly from investors. However, in the majority of countries they are not subject to financial regulation.

Retirement Age Goes Up: Retro-analysis and a Look Forward

Economics

Retirement Age Goes Up: Retro-analysis and a Look Forward

September 23, 2019 | Evsey Gurvich

Putting off an increase in the retirement age has cost Russia cuts in spending on development and increased pressure on the workforce. The next step is to estimate how much the budget will gain from the reform and to find the most effective way to use this money.

Echoes of the Global Slowdown: Russia Won’t Be Watching from the Sidelines

Economics

Echoes of the Global Slowdown: Russia Won’t Be Watching from the Sidelines

August 15, 2019 | Dmitry Polevoy

Non-commodity exports have slumped, and their fall can no longer be offset by oil and gas. Demand for Russia’s goods is decreasing as its trade partners’ growth slows.

How Inflation Targeting Affects Economic Growth

Economics

Monetary Policy

How Inflation Targeting Affects Economic Growth

July 1, 2019 | Philipp Kartaev

Inflation targeting might support economic growth by lowering inflation and volatility. However, monetary policy alone cannot drive growth.

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