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Generative AI has become an important factor influencing employees’ incomes in Russia, with the AI wage premium averaging 13%. The maximum benefit goes to those who already have high incomes and high skills, which may contribute to the expansion of the wage gap.
Macroeconomic forecasts often assume shock-induced unemployment is temporary and that employment and output recover. However, the reality may be far more complicated. The loss of skills and the mismatch that arises when workers switch industries may stall a recovery for years.
The science of economics is not mere knowledge of the world but a way of knowing it. This is why fictional worlds may be legitimate areas of research which are sometimes more convenient than the real world.
In Russia, around a third of the employed face a significant risk of being potentially affected by AI in their daily work. However, full automation, owing to the shift of all functions from humans to AI, threatens less than 1% of jobs.
Financial crises are associated with ‘black swans’, i.e. sudden market crashes. However, if a crisis is viewed as a peak-to-recovery period, the ‘swans’ become ‘turkeys’: routine and protracted events. They are almost unnoticeable but systemically chip away at investors’ wealth.
Unlike conventional finance, where profit is derived from interest on loans, Islamic finance works on a different logic: income only arises from real assets and shared risk. Over the past half-century, Islamic finance has grown into a global industry spanning 140 countries.
The price differential between new builds and resale properties in Russia is driven by factors beyond macroeconomic conditions. What also matters is the housing market structure including the level of competition among developers and banks, and subsidised mortgage programmes.
The digital economy is transforming the classic factors of production Adam Smith described in The Wealth of Nations – the treatise that laid the foundation of economics. Two and a half centuries later, Smith’s ideas remain relevant, but new realities demand that we rethink them.
Russia has seen a twofold rise in the average standard of living over the past 20 years. However, the share of food in household spending has shown paradoxical trends: in defiance of economic theory and global practice, it has changed little, if at all.
Consumer behaviour long remained on the periphery of both economic and sociological theory. The social sciences had to undergo several ‘turns’ before consumption was recognised as an independent economic and social force in its own right.
People often make unnecessary purchases or end up paying more than they can afford to, contrary to their economic benefit. Such consumption is called non-standard, and is observed, at least occasionally, in almost half of Russian adults.
The rational expectations hypothesis was the gold standard in macroeconomics for many years. It assumes that people take a realistic view of the future. In fact, people often attach too much importance to short-term trends, which may directly impact a central bank’s policy.
People often intuitively perceive economics as a zero-sum game, where one person’s gain automatically means another person’s loss. These naïve economic beliefs distort decision-making processes and become a handy tool for political manipulation.
The price of gold is shaped by a combination of fundamental and political factors. We examine the key forces that form it and explain, why the Fed’s decisions has taken the back seat, how central banks and the AI boom influence the market, and why low-grade gold ore prevails?
The abandonment of the US dollar as the dominant currency in the near future is highly unlikely. However, geopolitics, coupled with modern financial technologies, may become a driver of the transition to a new equilibrium, with regional currencies becoming dominant.
Migrants make a substantial contribution to the economy of the Russian capital, accounting for over 20% of its GRP. Up to two-thirds comes from residents of other Russian regions. The significant role of internal migration is what sets Moscow apart from many other global cities.
The degree of monetary tightening for a sustainable disinflation depends not only on the inflation rate, but also on the conditions that have led to its rise. There are three reasons why considerable monetary tightness might need to be maintained even when inflation decelerates.
More and more people around the world are getting news from social media. For regulators, this is an opportunity to receive feedback in real time. In our study, we show this by building an index that reflects how Telegram users channels perceive the Bank of Russia’s decisions.
Industrial policy is recovering all over the world. Our analysis of more than 6,500 regulatory acts across nations evidenced that advanced economies support high-tech mastered sectors, while emerging markets – the introduction of simpler technologies, which are new to them.
Human capital and its key component – education – are strongly linked to economic growth. However, high levels of education do not guarantee economic growth if a weak institutional environment hinders efficient application of knowledge and skills.
Although the real estate market is a separate sector, it is characterised by what is called ‘macro-criticality’. This means that the effects of changes in the market extend beyond it and may have an impact on macroeconomic stability in general.
Suboptimal and erroneous financial decisions people make often stem from cognitive biases. Their effect can be mitigated by impacting two key aspects – people’s behaviour and the decision-making environment.
The impact of population ageing on inflation remains contentious, as researchers’ opinions differ as to whether ageing has a deflationary or proinflationary effect. Our work uses data from the Russian regions to show that an elderly population has a proinflationary effect.
Unlike in other countries, inflation expectations in Russia are unresponsive to low inflation data of previous years, an experiment has found. This makes it imperative to ensure sustainably low inflation and prove that price stability is achievable.
An import reduction has a more than proportionate impact on Russia’s industrial output and exports. Over one year, a 1% decrease in imports as a share of production costs across industries leads to a more than 2% output reduction and an even more significant decline in exports.
Central banks have a system for announcing the future path of monetary policy: forward guidance. It contributes to the reducing uncertainty in the economy and decreasing market volatility and helps economic agents adjust to expected changes in advance.
In the last decades, economists have created a number of indices of central bank transparency. However, all of them target a professional audience. We have built a new index to cover regulator efforts to communicate with a broader audience.
Stock market capitalisation plays a significant role in creating wealth for the population, and often draws the attention of financial authorities. But what drives capitalisation growth and what is its ‘optimal’ size? Some of the answers can be found in economic science.
The Russian market is assimilating key green financial instruments: bonds, corporate lending, and mortgages. However, there are other forms of sustainable finance that could also potentially take root in the market.
Modern technology and big data on retail sales enable more accurate and faster measurement of inflation. We are developing a methodology for calculating a price index based on data from online receipts: in the future, it will make it possible to track inflation in near real time.
Human capital is one of the key factors of economic growth, but there are few quantitative estimates of its contribution to the Russian economy. New estimates show that its contribution peaked in the second half of the 2000s and had almost disappeared by the end of the 2010s.
In a geographically large economy, different regions can respond differently to the same events. Nowcasting used for data across Russia revealed these differences as well as their dependence on the level of development and the sectoral specialisation of the regions.
Russian companies became more generous with their dividends. Corporate reports for 2005–2023 show that major corporations provide the largest payments, while third-tier issuers pay dividends most frequently. However, a focus on dividends does not guarantee a return on investment.
Europe’s dependence on Russian supplied gas has drastically reduced. Nevertheless, several EU member states retain an interest in continued Russian exports given the steep costs of switching to alternative supplies.
The number of educated and employed women in Russia is high by world standards. Russia is among the world leaders for the share of families with a woman as the main breadwinner. The weak role in governance and large pay gap are paradoxical, but have an institutional explanation.
The past two years saw an almost complete transformation of the logistics and geography of Russia’s export and import. Analysis of this process has identified a number of patterns and risks in the new structure of foreign trade.
In terms of concentration of wealth in the hands of a small group, 1% of the population, Russia is among the world’s leaders. This group is almost inaccessible for sociological analysis, but a few assessments can be made from open sources.
Cryptocurrencies have become a riskier asset than they once were and no longer add diversification to investment portfolios. Cryptoassets more and more resemble lottery tickets in terms of risk profile.
People’s inflation expectations are often based on the dynamics of prices for certain goods and services called “visible items”. For Russians, these visible items include durables such as cars and clothes, and also petrol, housing maintenance and public transport fares.
Many indicators point to a rise in economic uncertainty, but it is the news that reflects this trend most quickly. The index based on media archives has accurately shown all crises in the 21st century and made it possible to calculate their consequences for the economy.
The dynamics and geography of international capital flows are changing. Geopolitical risks have become the major driver of these flows.
AI has become a tool of creative destruction. Companies that incorporate it into their business models will set the tone for the development of their sectors in the coming years. Perhaps AI will also cause a realignment in the trade and economic alliances of countries.
After a period of record growth in 2022, gas spot prices in the European market have returned to the levels seen two years ago. Europe has managed to adapt to the reduction in supplies from Russia, but price volatility and consumption risks persist.
The inflationary episode that has been experienced by all developed countries since 2021 is not over. The risk of losing the inflation anchor and falling into the stagflation trap exists even though the effects of pro-inflation factors have almost completely worn off.
Have central banks opened up due to the increased openness of the authorities or the developments of new media? This is not the case. Openness was a response to unprecedented shocks that has helped to withstand such shocks when traditional tools have turned out to be ineffective.
Entrepreneurship in Russia has shown great resilience to changes in the political and economic landscape: the influence of institutions and culture on business activity may persist even after extreme changes in political and economic conditions.
International sanctions have accelerated the transformation of the labour market which started during the pandemic. The market has moved from limited demand to limited supply, and this situation will persist for a long time, labor market expert Rostislav Kapeliushnikov says.
The more clearly businesses and households understand the central bank's policy, the closer their inflation expectations are to the target. However, it is possible for monetary policy to be excessively transparent, which can bring more harm than benefit.
Global regulators are facing a dilemma: the objectives of monetary policy contradict the objectives of supporting financial stability. Useful conclusions for Bank of Russia policy can be drawn from this situation.
No one will argue that the financial sector affects the real one, but the number of answers to the question of how exactly it does so is almost the same as the number of economists. A problem arises in finding indicators that characterise this influence quite fully.
Gravity exists not only in physics, but also in economics, and just like in physics, its laws are objective. It is far more important for small and medium-sized economies to maintain and develop economic ties with the largest economies than vice versa.
As one of the three winners of the 2022 Nobel Prize in economics, Ben Bernanke was awarded it for his research into the causes of the Great Depression. He learned and applied its lessons as chair of the US Federal Reserve when it had to combat the global financial crisis.
With inflation expectations anchored, price spikes do not spread between market segments, and inflation returns to the target level. We have assessed that the expectations of Russian economists have been anchored since 2017, while those of households have not yet been anchored.
Transition to a low-carbon economy remains a priority for major countries including China despite the rises in commodity prices and the highest global inflation. For Russia, as its economy refocuses on Asian markets, the importance of the green transition still holds.
The Fed waited too long to tighten the policy in its anti-inflation stand, believing the acceleration of prices to have been temporary. The biggest concern for markets now is whether the Fed could avoid another policy mistake with regards to over hiking interest rates.
In March, the Russian economy entered a downturn phase triggered by the impact of all-out foreign trade and financial sanctions and restrictions. If they continue, the economy will lose some of its potential, and the recovery will be protracted.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are gradually supplanting all other types of funds in the financial market. Their rampant growth makes it simpler for millions of investors to enter markets. However, their expected dominance might have effects that are yet to be explored.
From 2022 on, Russian retail investors will be allowed to buy foreign exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This regulatory decision tackles several objectives, from making investments more balanced to encouraging competition among asset management companies.
There has never been such expensive gas in Europe as recently: over the 12 months up to the end of November, prices increased more than 5-fold. The situation raises the question of whether this crisis is temporary or it signifies structural problems in the energy markets.
Uber and Lyft once promised to replace personal cars and do away with traffic congestion. However, some municipal authorities believe that these services have only exacerbated traffic jams. Research shows that their impact on road traffic depends on the ‘design’ of cities.
Central banks strive to speak clearly and simply – this is critical to effectively targeting inflation. We assessed the comprehensibility of the Bank of Russia's communications using neural networks – it showed that the level of its texts is rather complicated for the public.
Russia will lag behind Europe, the United States and China in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from its power industry. Ensuring a reliable and affordable energy supply is of a higher priority in Russia than ecology, and natural gas matches both criteria.
Climate risks, renewable power, and carbon neutrality are all on the agenda of country leaders and business executives all over the world. Measures taken will have a direct impact on Russia.
New legislative requirements for communication with non-qualified investors are meant to enhance the protection of individuals in financial markets and increase market transparency by providing more comprehensive information about financial products to investors.
Inequality remains a sore point in socio-economic development, but society's key demands for justice have more to do with inequalities of opportunity such as equality before the law and equal access to healthcare and education, than with the elimination of income inequality.
Changes in private and social life caused by the pandemic have reignited scientific interest in gender inequality in the labour market. Russian economy has adapted to the crisis mainly through price adjustment, and this means the gender pay gap is likely to grow.
The EU carbon tax on imports that is to be imposed in 2022 may affect almost 42% of Russian exports. The private sector and the state should take active measures to maintain economic competitiveness in the world of growing climate risks.
Economics distinguishes inequality of outcomes and inequality of opportunity. The latter is both unfair and inefficient.
The unprecedented crisis will require fundamental changes in Russia’s fiscal policy. Financing anti-crisis measures will involve not only using the National Welfare Fund, but also moving away from fiscal rule and using unconventional fiscal and monetary tools.
The unconventional nature of the crisis requires unconventional measures. About one third of all jobs in Russia are at risk, and the main objective is to enable those who have lost their jobs and income to return to paid work quickly when the lockdown is lifted.
Most Russians believe that loans make their life tougher, but almost 50% of households have outstanding loans. Many borrow impulsively without regard to consequences, although the majority manage to pay them off.
Adherence to high standards of corporate governance in the banking sector can reinforce the resilience of the banking system. However, existing corporate governance practices do not help curb the risks banks take.
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